You’re putting me on the spot! Well, of course I would favor the three highest-rated players: Izoria, Kacheishvili, and Kraai. Izoria, to say the least, was unimpressive in his first-round game, but he obviously is a player to be reckoned with. He had a great run of success when he first came to the U.S. in 2005 (?), including first place in the huge HB Foundation tournament that was the richest Swiss-system tournament ever. Kacheishvili was very impressive in the first round, but I don’t know much about him otherwise. Kraai is the hometown favorite — I’m rooting for him both as a fellow ChessLecturer, and as a fellow American (and Californian!). But that might make my assessment of his chances a little biased. He won his most recent tournament, which is a sign that he is in good form. So … I’m rooting for Jesse, but it would be not at all surprising for Izoria or Kacheishvili to win. If you’re looking for a non-GM dark horse, David Pruess is a good choice, because he has two GM norms and is highly motivated to get a third, and he is on home turf, and he got off to a very good start except for his tactical slip that let Izoria off the hook.